President Donald Trump has signed an executive order declaring a national emergency over the Cuban government and setting up a mechanism to levy new U.S. tariffs on goods imported from any foreign country that “directly or indirectly” sells or otherwise provides oil to Cuba, escalating Washington’s pressure campaign by shifting costs onto Havana’s external energy partners.
The order does not establish a single, automatic tariff rate. Instead, it creates a process: the U.S. Commerce Department, in consultation with the State Department, is tasked with determining whether a foreign country is supplying oil to Cuba after the order’s effective date; once such a finding is made, Commerce must notify State and the administration can move toward imposing tariffs on that country’s goods entering the U.S.
A “secondary tariff” approach
The policy functions like a trade-based analogue to “secondary sanctions,” attempting to deter third parties from supporting a targeted government by threatening penalties tied to their access to the U.S. market. The The White House framed the move as necessary to protect U.S. national security and foreign policy interests from what it described as Cuba’s “malign actions and policies.”
In public comments reported by Reuters and Associated Press, Trump portrayed the measure as a lever to force negotiations with Cuba’s leadership, arguing that constricting the island’s fuel supplies would increase economic pressure while stopping short of military escalation.
Mexico emerges as a focal point
While the order is written broadly, reporting from AP indicates the measure is widely seen as primarily pressuring Mexico, which has recently been cited as a key source of oil to Cuba after disruptions to other supply channels. AP reported that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum raised concerns that U.S. pressure could worsen a humanitarian situation on the island and that Mexico has weighed its options amid the threat of U.S. retaliation.
The executive order’s design - targeting a supplier’s broader export relationship with the U.S., not merely oil transactions—creates a potentially powerful deterrent for countries whose economies rely on U.S. market access. But it also increases the risk of diplomatic blowback and potential trade disputes, depending on how aggressively Washington applies the tariff authority and what tariff levels are ultimately announced. Multiple outlets have noted that the White House had not, at the time of reporting, specified the tariff rates.
Cuba denounces the measure; humanitarian alarms grow
Cuban leaders have condemned the order as an attempt to “suffocate” the economy. Coverage of reactions includes strong language from Havana’s leadership describing the U.S. move as deliberately designed to deepen shortages and social strain.
Reuters also reported that Cuba’s foreign minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla declared what he called an “international emergency” in response to the tariff threat and broader U.S. pressure.
The humanitarian implications are central to the controversy. Cuba’s electricity generation and transport systems are highly sensitive to fuel availability, and interruptions can rapidly cascade into blackouts, reduced public services and shortages. Critics argue the policy risks punishing civilians to coerce political outcomes, while the Trump administration argues the pressure is intended to bring Havana to talks and alter state behavior.
What the order does - and does not - do (verified details)
Based on the text published by the White House and contemporaneous reporting:
Declares a national emergency related to Cuba and establishes new authorities tied to that determination.
Creates a determination process led by the Commerce Department (with State consultation) to identify countries that provide oil to Cuba after the order takes effect.
Authorizes tariffs on goods from those countries, but reporting indicates the tariff rate was not specified in initial announcements.
What remains unclear from publicly available details is how broadly “indirectly” will be interpreted - such as re-exports, ship-to-ship transfers, financing, or oil swaps - and what evidentiary standard Commerce will use when making determinations. Those choices could significantly affect enforcement reach and the likelihood of legal and diplomatic challenges.
Diplomatic pressure meets calls for dialogue
As tensions rose, Pope Leo urged the U.S. and Cuba to pursue “sincere and effective dialogue,” according to Reuters, reflecting growing international concern that escalating economic measures could harden positions rather than open channels.
Trump, meanwhile, has said the U.S. is “starting to talk to Cuba,” signaling at least tentative outreach alongside the pressure campaign, though he provided few details about the format, interlocutors, or timeline of any negotiations.
What to watch next
The policy’s real impact will hinge on implementation choices that have not yet been fully spelled out:
Tariff levels and timing - whether the administration opts for a fixed “secondary tariff,” a graduated schedule, or case-by-case measures.
Named targets - which countries Commerce formally identifies as oil providers to Cuba and what evidence is cited.
Retaliation and legal risk - potential countermeasures from affected countries and trade-law challenges if tariffs are framed as politically coercive rather than narrowly security-based.
Humanitarian indicators in Cuba - changes in power generation, transport fuel availability, and any emergency aid corridors if shortages intensify.
For now, the executive order marks a significant expansion of Washington’s toolkit: instead of focusing solely on direct U.S. - Cuba restrictions, it aims to squeeze Havana by raising the cost of doing business with the island for third countries - turning Cuba’s oil supply chain into a new fault line in U.S. trade diplomacy.